What-If Scenario Analysis
Build a scenario analysis comparing optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic projections
Create a what-if scenario analysis for [DECISION/PROJECTION]. Build three scenarios: (1) Optimistic — best case with favourable assumptions, (2) Realistic — most likely case based on current trends, (3) Pessimistic — worst case with unfavourable assumptions. For each scenario provide: variable assumptions used, projected outcome (revenue, cost, timeline, or metric), probability estimate, key risks, and recommended actions. Create a comparison table and identify the break-even point or decision threshold. Conclude with a recommendation on which scenario to plan for.
Works on
⭐ M365 Copilot
(Best)
🟢 ChatGPT
🟠 Claude
🔵 Gemini
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Tips for Best Results
- In Excel, use with Data Tables or Scenario Manager for dynamic modelling
- Replace [DECISION/PROJECTION] with: “launching in a new market”, “hiring 10 more engineers”
- Add specific variables: “Assume price can vary between -”
- Follow up with “Create a sensitivity analysis chart showing the impact of each variable”